Sunday 31 may ….Japan Derby $5million and Chantilly (FR)
Could have record pool $20million AUD
Yesterdays tips have been erased 10 losers and only one place horse. There are no excuses this is probability theory and practise.
Markets that have short place favorites are correct about 50% of the time. But whats the point they will lose you money. Stand in front of a roulette table for long enough and many items are even money chances, it will not take so long for you to witness runs (sequences) of a dozen blacks or reds and more. Probability applies only to large samples We will continue with superficial selection of long prices for a while. While talking of yesterday the longest priced winner was in WA and 16 months or so ARMINO won a decent race at Moonee Valley. I join the praises of Paddy Payne alongside the power of Peter Snowden a multiple winner as we speak. Payne has 3 starters at Geelong one has run but the TAB made it a short priced favorite early.
tIPS
A very heavy deficit so far. If you have paid attention to your own mind and the way it operates in punting (i.e. selecting) mode you will have experienced how long it takes to analyse
a horserace. Even 10 minutes a race does not justify the description diligent. The TAB in Australia pay a team of people to do it starting some days before each meeting. When the radio station 2KY used the words for example ‘was 25-1’ early you may ask what do they mean. I don’t know. The implications of spending 10 minutes at least on one small race are immense should you consider the notion of professional gambling. Any one trying it here is taking on formidable competition. If you want tips at any price use the prepost TAB as a guide looking out for runners that may be at excessive overs by comparison (quite rare). But before that you must recognise that the published prices have a commission to themselves included. Moreover the accuracy in their prices is linked directly to the inverse of the posted odds. Outsiders will have received less attention than short shots. You must be prepared to build an algorithm to extrapolate the odds to sum to 100% to take account of these issues with the hope of some accuracy.
ummary finding a suitable race in a pool of 120 races is not easy. i am hopin to tip today
Taree 1 10 Varazze
Taree 5 8 Savvyrocker
ROC05068 2 Outwitted
DUB05069 8 Stockholm
TP Payne 7 winners from 10 in last 9 days…is this also a record ?
win profit
place profit
wins count
places
selections
-36
-17
1
6
42
“Via Sistina near best horse import to Australia, just below Europe’s top half dozen… but did cost over $6 million AUD. The same buyer bought Alcohol Free for double that sum but she remained unsung. a tale of luck for Waller not so for Gai. V. S. Prize money in Australia more than auction outlay. But she really struggled to win in 2025 and the amateurs at Longines have included her in World Ratings again at a reduced rating from the home hype she was given when winning by lengths.”
